The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (9/9) fell 1.6 points to 103.1 in August, due to fewer small business owners expecting better business conditions and real sales volumes in the months to come. The index remains within the top 15 percent of historical results, and the month saw favorable business conditions, in particular in job creation, earnings trend, and quarter-on-quarter sales. NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan was quoted saying, “In spite of the success we continue to see on Main Street, the manic predictions of recession are having a psychological effect and creating uncertainty for small business owners throughout the country. ... Small business owners continue to invest, grow, an hire at historically high levels, and we see no indication of a coming recession.”

CNN International (8/27, Isidore, Business) reported, “Small business owners who believe the economy will be better in six months exceeded those who said it would be worse by 20 percentage points, according to a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business in July.” The results were better than earlier this year, but “far below the readings throughout 2017 and 2018, when ‘better conditions’ outpaced ‘worse conditions’ by between 30 and 48 percentage points.” Small businesses “adding jobs exceeded those cutting positions by 2.6 percentage points... also sharply down from readings over the previous five quarters.” NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg was quoted saying, “The small business people are at the end of the supply chain. If it’s a consumer-led recession, small businesses are the first to know.”

Axios (8/30) reported that the “big downside” of the strong labor market is that some cities and states have become “worker deserts” where companies “say they can’t keep up with business demand — hampering growth — unless they find more workers.” Axios said, “Small businesses are suffering too: In a poll, the number that said finding qualified workers was their single most important problem hit a 46-year high last month, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.”

NFIB Michigan director Charlie Owens wrote in the Detroit News (8/29) that “the trade-off between freedom and security can be eroded with good intentions, and that’s exactly what Congress is doing with” the Corporate Transparency Act. While the Act’s premise is “good enough,” Owens said, “instead of locking up criminals, it will create a whole new class of them, whose only crime will be confusion surrounding burdensome and complex paperwork ... most of these new criminals will be the owners of your local family-owned small businesses.” Owens added that the bill “also raises serious privacy concerns for small business owners.”

The Washington Post (8/24, Paletta, Stein) reported President Trump promised Saturday “to cut taxes if Republicans win the White House and retake the House of Representatives next year, saying he would pass a ‘major’ middle-class tax cut, the latest in a string of varying tax pledges that he has made in the past week.” The Post said Trump “has offered few details about the new tax cut or explained how or if it would be paid for.” The Hill (8/24, Frazin) reported Trump “did not elaborate on any details for his proposed tax cut. The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment.”

In the Roanoke (VA) Times (9/14, NFIB, members) Nicole Riley, the state director of NFIB for Virginia, wrote an opinion piece on the Corporate Transparency Act that Congress is currently considering. Ms. Riley said the bill “would make almost every small business owner an easier target for identity thieves,” by forcing small businesses with under 20 employees “to report detailed private information to the federal government.” Additionally, Ms. Riley noted the reporting requirements of the Corporate Transparency Act are “legally complex,” and could result in small business owners facing “fines up to ten thousand dollars and up to three years in jail!” for misreporting.

The Wall Street Journal (9/15, Ramkumar, Subscription Publication) reports stocks have been gaining as investors return to the market, showing optimism that a strong economy will overcome jitters based in trade wars. Gold and Treasurys – which traditionally rise as wary investors sell stocks – have been declining amid waning recession fears.

Reuters (9/13, Cowan) reported the Administration intends to reveal “a tax cut plan in mid-2020, a top White House adviser said on Friday, saying it would be targeted to giving significant relief to the middle class.” At a retreat for GOP legislators, NEC Director Larry Kudlow provided no specifics to reporters regarding “what he has termed ‘Tax Cuts 2.0,’ a plan the administration intends to put forward as President Donald Trump pursues his bid for a second White House term.” Kudlow said, “We will gather together the best ideas from the Hill (Congress), the administration and outside folks to provide a significant new round of middle class tax relief.” Kudlow added, “This is not a recession measure at all.”

The AP (9/12, Crutsinger) reported the federal budget deficit “increased by $169 billion to $1.07 trillion in the first 11 months of this budget year as spending grew faster than tax collections.” The CBO “sees the annual deficit topping $1 trillion in 2020 and never falling below $1 trillion over the next decade.” Reuters (9/12, Dunsmuir) reported, “The Treasury said federal spending in August was $428 billion, down 1% from the same month in 2018, while receipts were $228 billion, an increase of 4% compared with August 2018.” The Wall Street Journal (9/12, Davidson, Subscription Publication) reported the last time a deficit was so high in the first 11 months of a fiscal year was in August 2012.

Reuters (9/13, Canepa) reported Christine Lagarde will “face a momentous decision in her first year as European Central Bank President: give up on reviving inflation or give in to the temptation of bankrolling governments with neverending bond purchases.” The central bank pledged on Thursday to buy bonds “for as long as necessary” for inflation expectations in the eurozone to hit its goal of just under 2 percent. Reuters said this commitment will “haunt the central bank’s decision-makers long after current boss Mario Draghi steps down on Oct. 31.” The piece explained that with the region’s economy “reeling from a global slowdown and incapable of generating enough growth domestically, the ECB could be in the market for years to come, gobbling up significant swathes of the bonds issued by indebted governments.”

Paypers (NLD) (9/13) reported Stripe has debuted its Stripe Corporate Card, which “will cater to the small businesses and startups in the US on Stripe’s payments platform.” The card aimed “to solve what the company says is a challenge for smaller companies that have trouble securing cards to buy supplies and to issue to employees.”

Bloomberg (9/5) reported that Stripe, “one of the most valuable financial-technology startups,” announced the launch of Stripe Capital on Thursday as the company moves into the lending space. Stripe Capital “will make loans to businesses that are already Stripe customers, as well as merchants selling on services like Shopify that use Stripe to process payments.”

The Washington Post (9/6, Jan) reported the National Community Reinvestment Coalition released a new study this week that found “black and Hispanic men seeking small business loans faced more scrutiny and worse treatment from bank officers than less qualified white men,” and also observed “declines in government-backed lending to black business owners, dropping from 8 percent to 3 percent of small-business loans between 2008 and 2016.” The Post said the results of the study “demonstrate the challenges minority entrepreneurs face when trying to access additional capital to expand their businesses.”

In an interview with Crain’s New York Business (9/3), Shake Shack CEO Randy Garutti talked about how quick-service startups can rival established chains. He said one of Shake Shack’s “secret sauces” is that it “harnessed the power and brand of New York, and we also have a business that works outside New York. Almost no one has been able to achieve that.”

Inc. Magazine (9/3) reported that, “as part of a summer-long celebration of small business owners, Capital One Spark Business and Inc. hosted ‘Competing with Giants: How Small Businesses Solve Big Business Challenges,’ a panel discussion held at Inc.’s Fast Growth Tour in San Francisco.” The discussion allowed three entrepreneurs to share their success stories, “giving attendees solid, actionable advice as to what it takes to win against giant competitors.”

Forbes (9/12) contributor Dr. Sterling Carter, the co-founder of Sterling Staffing Solutions and an author of books on success, said “research implies that there is a positive link between wage increases and productivity,” but “the story is complicated.” Carter said one way “to better understand the relationship between wages and productivity” is “to look at” Amazon’s decision “to raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour for all workers.” Carter says that “according to Harvard Business Review, wage hikes – in the case of Amazon – increase productivity for two main reasons,” one because “paying wages above the market rate can be an important motivating force” and the other because “when a company gives an unexpected pay raise, workers tend to work harder than is required.”

Breitbart (9/8, Rodriguez) reported, “More than 6.2 million individuals dropped off food stamps since President Donald Trump completed his first full month in office,” according to USDA data. Individual and household Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation “has consistently declined since 2013.”

The Washington Post (9/5, Sonmez) reported Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) said at a Saturday town hall meeting in Iowa “that lawmakers should discuss fixing Social Security ‘behind closed doors,’ prompting a wave of criticism from liberal and advocacy groups.” Ernst said, “I do think, as various parties and members of Congress, we need to sit down behind closed doors so we’re not being scrutinized by this group or the other, and just have an open and honest conversation about what are some of the ideas that we have for maintaining Social Security in the future.”

In commentary published by Eater (9/6), Amanda Cohen, the chef and owner of Dirt Candy in New York City, said it’s “getting harder and harder to run a small business in the” city. Some attribute this to “being required to pay employees $15 per hour,” but, argues Cohen, what’s “more difficult than a mandated increase in the minimum wage is that my back-of-house wages will still have to go up this year to accommodate New York City’s inflated cost of living, which has far outstripped what you can earn in a restaurant kitchen.”

The Washington Post (9/1, A1, Samuels) reported that “for decades, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to push families out of poverty by adding restrictions to government welfare programs.” Now, the “idea of guaranteed income is gaining traction, from the presidential debate stage to Silicon Valley.” Even “some Democratic hopefuls have promoted the concept as a way to reduce wealth inequality.” Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), for example, “has proposed providing every child born in the United States $1,000 in interest-bearing accounts,” while Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) “pitch[ed] guaranteed tax refunds of up to $6,000 for families making less than six figures.”